Teddy White rule: Al Eisele: unexpected.

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Al Eisele: The Teddy White Rule: Expect the Unexpected HPFB.init();
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Al EiseleEditor-at-Large, The Hill

GET UPDATES FROM Al Eisele   Like 51 The Teddy White Rule: Expect the UnexpectedPosted: 08/07/2012 10:22 pm React Important
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Even before Mitt Romney nailed down the Republican presidential nomination, many of my friends and acquaintances, mostly of the Democratic persuasion, were asking me about Barack Obama's re-election prospects and whether I think he'll have a Democratic Congress to work with if re-elected.

Maybe it's because they know I began covering national politics nearly a half century ago, and have reported on, or been involved in, every congressional and presidential election since 1966, that they think I have some special insight into an election now less than three months away.

I'm flattered, but I have to admit I don't have a crystal ball. Nor does anybody else. The only thing I can tell them is something I learned long ago about the futility of predicting what American voters will do when they enter a polling booth.

It was shortly after I came to Washington in 1965 as a correspondent for the St. Paul Dispatch and Pioneer Press and other Knight-Ridder newspapers, and Theodore H. White, who practically invented the art of political reporting, invited me for a drink in his Upper East Side Manhattan townhouse.

He did so as a favor to his friend Walter Ridder, who was my bureau chief. Eyeing me through his owlish spectacles as he poured both of us a generous portion of good bourbon, the venerable Time/Life reporter and author of the "The Making of the President" volumes, offered some invaluable advice to an attentive rookie reporter.

There are two cardinal rules political reporters should never forget, explained White, who died in 1986 at the age of 71. The first is to always resist the thinking of people you see every day, and to report what you know is happening and never predict what you think will happen. "To go against the dominant thinking of your friends, of the people you see every day, is perhaps the most difficult thing you can do," he said.

The other cardinal rule for political reporters -- and everybody else, I would add -- said White, is to always expect that unexpected and unpredictable events will turn the course of presidential elections, and history. He was soon proven right in 1968 when President Johnson declined to run for reelection; in 1972 when George McGovern was forced to dump Tom Eagleton as his running mate,; in 1976 when President Ford said there was no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe, etc. etc.

Never has White's sage advice been more relevant for those who work in today's brave new world of journalism. This includes Jurassic journalists like me; expert political observers like the Washington Post's Dan Balz, the New York Times' Tom Friedman, NBC's Chuck Todd and Commonweal columnist E. J. Dionne; as well as the legion of let-me-tell-you-what-just-happened bloggers, Twitterers, Facebookers, and assorted other political commentators and poll watchers.

Just think, for a minute, of the long list of "unpredictables" and "unexpecteds" that could, and probably will, affect the outcome of the 2012 election.

Start with the obvious, which is the economy, stupid. President Obama and Mitt Romney stress the relative merits of job creation, tax cuts, economic stimulus, the federal deficit, cutting federal spending, etc., but the fact is the U.S. is at the mercy of forces beyond our control in an increasingly globalized economy. The fate of the tottering Euro, growing trade imbalances with China and India and other low wage countries, the ever-rising cost of imported oil and gas, -- all will help determine the strength or weakness of the U.S. economy between now and November.

Then there's the Supreme Court decision upholding -- barely -- Obama's signature domestic achievement, the Affordable Care Act, a.k.a. Obamacare. If the high court, with its five Republican appointed justices, had overturned the law or key parts of it, as was widely expected, Obama would have been put in a defensive crouch, given his impolitic comment that it would be "unprecedented" for the court to strike down a law passed by Congress. This, even against an opponent who produced the model for Obamacare as governor of Massachusetts.

There are other equally unpredictable domestic issues ranging from illegal immigration to affirmative action to energy independence to global warming to taxpayer funding of abortions to extending unemployment compensation. And now, in the wake of the Trayvon Martin tragedy and the mass killings in Colorado and Wisconsin, add the explosive issues of racial tension and gun control.

But all these are no less unpredictable than the political impact of the Supreme Court's 2010 Citizens United decision that lifted the limits on union and corporate contributions to candidates for public office. According to the Center for Responsive Politics, the 2012 election will be the most expensive ever, almost certain to exceed $6 billion, or at least a billion dollars more than was spent in the 2008 election. Already, both Obama and Romney are the targets of harshly negative campaigns by so-called Super PACs via traditional media and social media.

Thanks also to the toxic political atmosphere, Congress and state legislatures from Sacramento to St. Paul, Baton Rouge to Boston and Tallahassee to Topeka remain stalled in partisan gridlock as compromise becomes a dirty word, and elected officials like Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker are threatened with recall campaigns for promoting anti-union and budget policies that reflect the national GOP's hardline approach to government spending. In short, the 2012 election is already shaping up as the nastiest, meanest and most expensive quadrennial election since, well, since the last one.

Then there's always the possibility -- no, make that the probability -- of a self-inflicted verbal gaffe or political blunder by Obama or Romney in their presidential debates or on the campaign trail. Remember Gerald Ford's damaging denial of Soviet domination of Eastern Europe in 1976, Walter Mondale's too-candid admission in 1984 that he'd have to raise taxes if elected, Michael Dukakis's ill-fated ride in a tank in 1988 and John Kerry's equally ill-fated wind surfing excursion in 2004?

And it also doesn't include the effect of Romney's choice of a running mate. (I'm putting my money on Ohio Sen. Rob Portman since no Republican has ever been elected without carrying Ohio.) While most people don't vote for a president because of who is chosen to be a heartbeat away from the presidency, many voters are turned off by what they perceive as a poor choice of a running mate. I offer John McCain and Sarah Palin, Kerry and John Edwards, George H.W. Bush and Dan Quayle, and, going back a bit, Barry Goldwater and William Miller as proof.

And even while Congress and the White House battle tooth and nail over domestic issues, there are always unpleasant surprises lurking on the international horizon. Remember the takeover of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran that helped send Jimmy Carter back to Georgia in 1981? Will the two wars winding down in Iraq and Afghanistan go as smoothly as Obama hopes? Will the death of Osama bin Laden reduce the threat of another terrorist attack on the U.S.? Will Israel resort to military force to prevent Iran from achieving nuclear weaponry?

Finally, the specter of violence still haunts the electoral landscape as our first black president seeks reelection. God forbid, an assassination attempt could change history in an instant. Fortunately, that hasn't happened this year, but would-be assassins threatened the lives of Presidents Ford -- twice -- and Reagan, while airplane crashes like that which killed Sen. Paul Wellstone of Minnesota two weeks before he hoped to be reelected are always a possibility. Ironically, when Kerry ran for president in 2004, his wife was the widow of another air crash victim, Sen. John Heinz of Pennsylvania.

So the next time somebody asks you who's going to win the 2012 election, remind them of the Teddy White Rule, which is to always expect the unexpected and unpredictable. You can't go wrong with that.

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of our newest badge: Community Curator. View AllFavorites Recency |  Popularity RaymondAlt17 Fans 4 hours ago ( 2:33 PM)I see. Unknown varibales could effect outcomes - How prescient!!RaymondAlt: I see. Unknown varibales could effect outcomes - How prescient!!http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/RaymondAlt/2012-election-october-surprise_b_1753984_175516992.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share itThis comment has been down-ranked into oblivion. View comment You have not right to carry out this operation or Error this operation. Loading comments… HUFFPOST PUNDITMarcEdwardlikes all cats more than most people2922 Fans 8 hours ago (10:02 AM)Remember Gerald Ford's damaging denial of Soviet domination of Eastern Europe in 1976, Walter Mondale's too-candid admission in 1984 that he'd have to raise taxes if elected, Michael Dukakis's ill-fated ride in a tank in 1988 and John Kerry's equally ill-fated wind surfing excursion in 2004?

If these are the best examples of "the unexpected" I can't take this "warning" very seriously. Mondale could not have won the 1984 election even if Jesus had come down from Heaven to endorse him, given where the economy was and how boring Mondale was. Dukakis' tank ride didn't help him, but his failure to respond to the Willie Horton ads hurt him far more. John Kerry's wind surfing was nothing compared to his failure to anticipate the Swift Boat attacks (anybody who was online knew they were coming months in advance) and counter them seriously. Gerald Ford was hurt far more by rampant inflation and Nixon's corruption than by his gaffe about the Soviet Union.
Another example of an inside the beltway pundit self styled "expert" who only repeats conventional wisdom rather than original thinkingMarcEdward: Remember Gerald Ford's damaging denial of Soviet domination of Easternhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/MarcEdward/2012-election-october-surprise_b_1753984_175428510.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share itThis comment has been down-ranked into oblivion. View comment You have not right to carry out this operation or Error this operation. Loading comments… arizcitizen87 Fans 14 hours ago ( 3:57 AM)The greatest politcal writer of our time was a man who not only understood the art of politics but he humans who practiced said art. Teddy White was a reporter, not aman with his own agendas to push as he did his writing. Today the pundits all have an agenda of furthering their racial agendas, the war machine, keeping women from having or not having children, deciding who can or cannot marry, opening the immigration to every pedro, jesus and maria, wanting to raise taxes on everyone but themselves, and most importantly gaining power and infulence to get their favorite like minded politicans f releceted again and again.arizcitizen: The greatest politcal writer of our time was a manhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/arizcitizen/2012-election-october-surprise_b_1753984_175380325.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share itThis comment has been down-ranked into oblivion. View comment You have not right to carry out this operation or Error this operation. Loading comments… concernedforhumanity27 Fans 17 hours ago ( 1:02 AM)Yeah' This means that we got to keep on keepin' on'. I think President Obama will be reelected, but there is never a .sure thingconcernedforhumanity: Yeah' This means that we got to keep on keepin'http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/concernedforhumanity/2012-election-october-surprise_b_1753984_175360619.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share itThis comment has been down-ranked into oblivion. View comment You have not right to carry out this operation or Error this operation. Loading comments… HUFFPOST SUPER USERWILLJLAI'm not always nice,but I'm never wrong.192 Fans 19 hours ago (11:06 PM)"unexpected and unpredictable. You can't go wrong with that."
oh i get to go first!!!!!!! ..................expect an OBAMA landslide that is very unexpected (but not if one does some reading (see Nate silver at 538.com) and it will to happen...............!!!!!!WILLJLA: "unexpected and unpredictable. You can't go wrong with that." ohhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/WILLJLA/2012-election-october-surprise_b_1753984_175334701.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share it arizcitizen87 Fans 14 hours ago ( 4:00 AM)Don't bet the farm, if the unexpected is to occur, obama hopfully WILL NOT GET RELECTED. BETTER BET ON ROMNEY. OBAMA LANDSLIDE ROTFLMAO.arizcitizen: Don't bet the farm, if the unexpected is to occur,http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/arizcitizen/2012-election-october-surprise_b_1753984_175380534.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share it HUFFPOST SUPER USERWILLJLAI'm not always nice,but I'm never wrong.192 Fans 13 hours ago ( 5:20 AM)well your vote don't matter much sorry AZ !!!! my farm is fine i've got a great cement pond just saying btw your cap key is busted................and take the CA Quail down it ain't yours you  dry state  hater...............WILLJLA: well your vote don't matter much sorry AZ !!!! myhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/WILLJLA/2012-election-october-surprise_b_1753984_175385241.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share itThis comment has been down-ranked into oblivion. View comment You have not right to carry out this operation or Error this operation. Loading comments… HUFFPOST PUNDITMarcEdwardlikes all cats more than most people2922 Fans 8 hours ago (10:04 AM)Betting money on an Obama victory would be a poor investment as the odds makers in Vegas aren't paying much for that. Betting on a Romney victory gets you much better odds, but you'd lose all that money, as Romney is such a terrible candidate running a horrid campaign.MarcEdward: Betting money on an Obama victory would be a poorhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/MarcEdward/2012-election-october-surprise_b_1753984_175428942.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share itThis comment has been down-ranked into oblivion. View comment You have not right to carry out this operation or Error this operation. Loading comments…This comment has been down-ranked into oblivion. View comment You have not right to carry out this operation or Error this operation. Loading comments…This comment has been down-ranked into oblivion. View comment You have not right to carry out this operation or Error this operation. Loading comments…    new comment(s) on this entry — Click to refreshLoading comments… California Strong Obama 55 electoral votes Connecticut Strong Obama 7 electoral votes Washington, D.C. Strong Obama 3 electoral votes Delaware Strong Obama 3 electoral votes Hawaii Strong Obama 4 electoral votes Illinois Strong Obama 20 electoral votes Massachusetts Strong Obama 11 electoral votes Maryland Strong Obama 10 electoral votes Maine Strong Obama 4 electoral votes New Jersey Strong Obama 14 electoral votes New Mexico Strong Obama 5 electoral votes New York Strong Obama 29 electoral votes Oregon Strong Obama 7 electoral votes Rhode Island Strong Obama 4 electoral votes Vermont Strong Obama 3 electoral votes Washington Strong Obama 12 electoral votes Iowa Leans Obama 6 electoral votes Michigan Leans Obama 16 electoral votes Minnesota Leans Obama 10 electoral votes New Hampshire Leans Obama 4 electoral votes Nevada Leans Obama 6 electoral votes Ohio Leans Obama 18 electoral votes Pennsylvania Leans Obama 20 electoral votes Wisconsin Leans Obama 10 electoral votes Colorado Tossup 9 electoral votes Florida Tossup 29 electoral votes North Carolina Tossup 15 electoral votes Virginia Tossup 13 electoral votes Alaska Strong Romney 3 electoral votes Alabama Strong Romney 9 electoral votes Arkansas Strong Romney 6 electoral votes Arizona Strong Romney 11 electoral votes Georgia Strong Romney 16 electoral votes Idaho Strong Romney 4 electoral votes Indiana Strong Romney 11 electoral votes Kansas Strong Romney 6 electoral votes Kentucky Strong Romney 8 electoral votes Louisiana Strong Romney 8 electoral votes Missouri Strong Romney 10 electoral votes Mississippi Strong Romney 6 electoral votes Montana Strong Romney 3 electoral votes North Dakota Strong Romney 3 electoral votes Nebraska Strong Romney 5 electoral votes Oklahoma Strong Romney 7 electoral votes South Carolina Strong Romney 9 electoral votes South Dakota Strong Romney 3 electoral votes Tennessee Strong Romney 11 electoral votes Texas Strong Romney 38 electoral votes Utah Strong Romney 6 electoral votes West Virginia Strong Romney 5 electoral votes Wyoming Strong Romney 3 electoral votes Electoral Outlook2012 Based on HuffPost Pollster charts and analysis Romney 191 Electoral Votes Obama 281 Electoral Votes Election Map FOLLOW US Connect with your friends Check out stories you might like,
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